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Industry study 09 of 24 · Finance Research Companion

Balance Sheets, Interest Rates and Asset-Liability Management

~12,000 words · 2 technical exhibits

A bank is a machine for holding assets and liabilities that do not match. It borrows short (deposits that can leave the same day), lends long (mortgages, commercial real estate, bonds), and earns the gap between what it is paid and what it pays. That mismatch is the business, not a flaw in it. But it means every bank carries two exposures to interest rates at once: earnings risk (what happens to net interest income when rates move) and value risk (what happens to the market value of assets and liabilities, and therefore to equity). Add a third, liquidity risk (whether depositors leave faster than assets can be turned into cash), and the three together are the subject of asset-liability management (ALM). In 2022–23 the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate from near zero to 5.25–5.50% in sixteen months. US banks' unrealized losses on securities peaked at roughly $684 billion in the third quarter of 2023 (FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile), and three of the four largest bank failures in US history followed within eight weeks: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic. This section explains how a bank balance sheet is built, how net interest margin and duration work, why deposit behaviour (the deposit beta and deposit runoff) decides whether a bank is hedged, how securities are accounted for (available-for-sale versus held-to-maturity), how banks hedge with swaps, how ALM is governed, and what 2023 and earlier episodes teach. A worked example runs a stylized $40 billion regional bank through a 300-basis-point rate shock and a deposit run; a checklist sets out the questions to ask of any balance sheet.

What the study covers

  1. 1Overview: the business is the mismatch
  2. 2Anatomy of a bank balance sheet
  3. 3Net interest income and net interest margin
  4. 4Duration, convexity and the economic value of equity
  5. 5Deposits: betas, runoff and the franchise
  6. 6Securities portfolios: AFS, HTM and capital
  7. 7Hedging interest rate risk
  8. 8Liquidity and funding
  9. 9Governance and regulation of interest rate risk
  10. 10Beyond banks: ALM everywhere in finance
  11. 11The 2023 regional bank failures through an ALM lens
  12. 12Key numbers
  13. 13Landmark companies and cases
  14. 14Pitfalls
  15. 15How an expert thinks about it
  16. 16Glossary

Technical exhibits

Worked examples, checklists and case studies included with this study.

Regional Bank Rate Shock and Run Worked Example

A stylized $40bn regional bank: duration of each book, EVE under contractual and behavioural deposit assumptions, NII over three years at different deposit betas and with deposit migration, a pay-fixed swap overlay, AOCI and HTM marks against tangible equity, and a liquidity ladder for runs of 10–85% of uninsured deposits (computed in Python)

Alm and Balance Sheet Diligence Checklist

Questions to ask of a bank, neobank, lender, broker or stablecoin issuer about rate, deposit and liquidity risk